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<p>&#x4E09;&#x5927;&#x6838;&#x5FC3;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#xFF1A;&#x7EBF;&#x6027;&#x3001;&#x6B63;&#x6001;&#x5206;&#x5E03;&#x3001;&#x72EC;&#x7ACB;&#x6027;</p>
<p>&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x65B9;&#x6CD5;&#xFF1A;&#x6563;&#x70B9;&#x56FE;&#x3001;&#x67F1;&#x72B6;&#x56FE;&#x3001;&#x76AE;&#x5C14;&#x68EE;&#x76F8;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x6570;</p>
<p>&#x6563;&#x70B9;&#x56FE;&#x53EF;&#x4EE5;&#x89C2;&#x5BDF;&#x51FA;&#x6570;&#x636E;&#x8D8B;&#x52BF;&#x4EE5;&#x53CA;&#x6781;&#x503C;</p>
<p>&#x67F1;&#x72B6;&#x56FE;&#x53EF;&#x4EE5;&#x770B;&#x5230;&#x662F;&#x5426;&#x63A5;&#x8FD1;&#x6B63;&#x6001;&#x5206;&#x5E03;</p>
<p>&#x76AE;&#x5C14;&#x68EE;&#x76F8;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x6570;&#x80FD;&#x770B;&#x51FA;&#x662F;&#x5426;&#x5171;&#x540C;&#x53D8;&#x5316;</p>
<p>&#x89E3;&#x51B3;&#x529E;&#x6CD5;&#xFF1A;</p>
<ol>
<li>&#x53BB;&#x6389;&#x6781;&#x503C;&#xFF08;outlier&#xFF09;</li>
<li>&#x5BF9;&#x6570;&#x8F6C;&#x6362;&#xFF08;log transform&#xFF09;</li>
<li>&#x4E8C;&#x6B21;&#x9879;&#x8F6C;&#x6362;&#xFF1A;&#x53D6;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x5E73;&#x65B9;</li>
<li>&#x589E;&#x52A0;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#xFF08;moderator&#xFF09;</li>
<li>&#x591A;&#x91CD;&#x5171;&#x7EBF;&#x6027;&#xFF08;multiccollinearity&#xFF09;&#x589E;&#x5927;&#x6837;&#x672C;&#x91CF;&#x3001;&#x53BB;&#x6389;&#x53EF;&#x7591;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x3001;&#x5408;&#x5E76;&#x53EF;&#x7591;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;</li>
</ol>
<h3 id="&#x4E00;&#x5143;&#x7EBF;&#x6027;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;">&#x4E00;&#x5143;&#x7EBF;&#x6027;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;</h3>
<p>&#x53EA;&#x6709;&#x4E00;&#x4E2A;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x6A21;&#x578B;</p>
<p>&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x65B9;&#x7A0B;&#xFF1A;</p>
<h3 id="&#x591A;&#x5143;&#x7EBF;&#x6027;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;">&#x591A;&#x5143;&#x7EBF;&#x6027;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;</h3>
<p>&#x6709;&#x591A;&#x4E2A;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x7EBF;&#x6027;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;</p>
<h3 id="&#x5047;&#x8BBE;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;">&#x5047;&#x8BBE;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;</h3>
<p>&#x901A;&#x8FC7;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x96F6;&#x5047;&#x8BBE;&#x6210;&#x7ACB;&#x7684;&#x53EF;&#x80FD;&#x6027;&#xFF0C;&#x6765;&#x63A8;&#x65AD;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x5047;&#x8BBE;&#x6210;&#x7ACB;&#x7684;&#x53EF;&#x80FD;&#x6027;</p>
<p>&#x96F6;&#x5047;&#x8BBE;&#xFF1A;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4E4B;&#x95F4;&#x7684;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x5728;&#x603B;&#x4F53;&#x4E2D;&#x4E0D;&#x5B58;&#x5728;
&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x5047;&#x8BBE;&#xFF1A;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4E4B;&#x95F4;&#x7684;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x5728;&#x603B;&#x4F53;&#x4E2D;&#x5B58;&#x5728;
p&#x503C;&#xFF1A;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>H</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">H_0</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.83333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit" style="margin-right:0.08125em;">H</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.30110799999999993em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:-0.08125em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">0</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x5982;&#x679C;&#x6210;&#x7ACB;&#x7684;&#x8BDD;&#xFF0C;&#x6837;&#x672C;&#x89C2;&#x6D4B;&#x7ED3;&#x679C;&#x5728;&#x62BD;&#x6837;&#x5206;&#x5E03;&#x4E2D;&#x53D1;&#x751F;&#x7684;&#x6982;&#x7387;&#x3002;</p>
<h3 id="&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x6A21;&#x578B;&#x7684;&#x5047;&#x8BBE;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;">&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x6A21;&#x578B;&#x7684;&#x5047;&#x8BBE;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;</h3>
<p>&#x6A21;&#x578B;&#x6574;&#x4F53;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;
&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x6839;&#x636E;&#x6837;&#x672C;&#x6570;&#x636E;&#x5EFA;&#x7ACB;&#x7684;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x6A21;&#x578B;&#x5728;&#x603B;&#x4F53;&#x4E2D;&#x662F;&#x5426;&#x5177;&#x6709;&#x89E3;&#x91CA;&#x529B;
&#x5224;&#x65AD;&#x6807;&#x51C6;&#xFF1A;R&#x65B9;&#x53CA;&#x5176;&#x663E;&#x8457;&#x5EA6;&#xFF1B;&#x6BD4;&#x7528;&#x5747;&#x503C;&#x9884;&#x6D4B;&#xFF0C;&#x51C6;&#x786E;&#x5EA6;&#x63D0;&#x9AD8;&#x7684;&#x767E;&#x5206;&#x6BD4;
&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x7CFB;&#x6570;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;
&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x65B9;&#x7A0B;&#x4E2D;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x5BF9;&#x56E0;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x5F71;&#x54CD;&#x5728;&#x603B;&#x4F53;&#x4E2D;&#x662F;&#x5426;&#x5B58;&#x5728;
&#x5224;&#x65AD;&#x6807;&#x51C6;&#xFF1A;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x7CFB;&#x6570;&#x53CA;&#x5176;&#x663E;&#x8457;&#x5EA6;
&#x975E;&#x6807;&#x51C6;&#x5316;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x7CFB;&#x6570;&#xFF1A;B&#xFF0C;&#x56DE;&#x7B54;&#x5355;&#x4E2A;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x5BF9;&#x4E8E;&#x56E0;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x89E3;&#x91CA;&#x529B;&#x3002;</p>
<p>&#x6563;&#x70B9;&#x56FE;&#x3001;&#x6B63;&#x6001;&#x5206;&#x5E03;&#x3001;&#x4FEE;&#x6B63;&#x6B63;&#x6001;&#x5206;&#x5E03;&#xFF1F;&#xFF08;&#x53D6;&#x5BF9;&#x6570;&#x3001;&#x5F00;&#x65B9;&#x3001;&#x5E73;&#x65B9;&#xFF0C;&#x4EE5;&#x6EE1;&#x8DB3;&#x6B63;&#x6001;&#x5206;&#x5E03;&#x7684;&#x524D;&#x63D0;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#xFF09;&#xFF0C;&#x8865;&#x5145;&#x53D6;&#x5BF9;&#x6570;&#x7684;&#x610F;&#x4E49;
&#x76F8;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x6570;</p>
<p>&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x6A21;&#x578B;&#x4E2D;&#x7684;&#x63A7;&#x5236;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#xFF0C;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#x4E0A;&#x4E0D;&#x8BA8;&#x8BBA;</p>
<p>&#x4EA4;&#x53C9;&#x9879;</p>
<p>&#x641C;&#x7D22;&#x5218;&#x5A1C;&#x7684;&#x8303;&#x4F8B;&#x8BBA;&#x6587;</p>
<h2 id="&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x548C;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;">&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x548C;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;</h2>
<p>&#x6211;&#x4EEC;&#x7684;&#x5F88;&#x591A;&#x77E5;&#x8BC6;&#x90FD;&#x662F;&#x5EFA;&#x7ACB;&#x5728;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x95F4;&#x7684;&#x76F8;&#x4E92;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x6216;&#x56E0;&#x679C;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x7684;&#x57FA;&#x7840;&#x4E0A;&#x7684;&#xFF0C;&#x968F;&#x7740;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x7684;&#x6DF1;&#x5165;&#xFF0C;&#x4E00;&#x4E9B;&#x7B80;&#x5355;&#x7684;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x5DF2;&#x7ECF;&#x4E0D;&#x80FD;&#x591F;&#x63D0;&#x4F9B;&#x8DB3;&#x591F;&#x7684;&#x4FE1;&#x606F;&#xFF0C;&#x4E5F;&#x96BE;&#x4EE5;&#x6982;&#x62EC;&#x590D;&#x6742;&#x7684;&#x60C5;&#x51B5;&#x3002;&#x6240;&#x4EE5;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x8005;&#x4EEC;&#x624D;&#x63D0;&#x51FA;&#x4E86;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#xFF08;moderation&#xFF09;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x548C;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#xFF08;mediation&#xFF09;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x6316;&#x6398;&#x66F4;&#x591A;&#x4FE1;&#x606F;&#x3002;</p>
<p>&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x4E0E;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x662F;&#x793E;&#x4F1A;&#x79D1;&#x5B66;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x4E2D;&#x91CD;&#x8981;&#x7684;&#x65B9;&#x6CD5;&#x5B66;&#x6982;&#x5FF5;&#xFF0C;&#x8FD1;&#x5E74;&#x6765;&#x8D8A;&#x6765;&#x8D8A;&#x53D7;&#x5230;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x8005;&#x7684;&#x91CD;&#x89C6;&#x3002;&#x4E3B;&#x8981;&#x539F;&#x56E0;&#x662F;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x8005;&#x7ECF;&#x5E38;&#x9047;&#x5230;&#x7B2C;&#x4E09;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x6DF7;&#x6DC6;&#x4E0E;&#x5E72;&#x6270;&#xFF0C;&#x662F;&#x7684;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4E0E;&#x56E0;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x89E3;&#x91CA;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x53D7;&#x5230;&#x5F71;&#x54CD;&#x3002;&#x5BF9;&#x4E8E;&#x4E00;&#x4E2A;&#x91CD;&#x8981;&#x7684;&#x7B2C;&#x4E09;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#xFF0C;&#x5982;&#x679C;&#x6CA1;&#x6709;&#x6B63;&#x786E;&#x7684;&#x7EB3;&#x5165;&#x63A7;&#x5236;&#x6216;&#x5206;&#x6790;&#xFF0C;&#x4E0D;&#x4EC5;&#x53EF;&#x80FD;&#x4F1A;&#x9020;&#x6210;&#x7CFB;&#x6570;&#x4F30;&#x8BA1;&#x7684;&#x504F;&#x8BEF;&#xFF0C;&#x4E5F;&#x53EF;&#x80FD;&#x5FFD;&#x7565;&#x7B2C;&#x4E09;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x53EF;&#x80FD;&#x4E0E;&#x89E3;&#x91CA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x5B58;&#x5728;&#x7684;&#x4EA4;&#x4E92;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#xFF0C;&#x4ECE;&#x800C;&#x65E0;&#x6CD5;&#x638C;&#x63E1;&#x7B2C;&#x4E09;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x5BF9;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x89E3;&#x91CA;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x7684;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x5316;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x3002;</p>
<p>&#x5728;&#x4E00;&#x4E2A;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x6A21;&#x578B;&#x4E2D;&#xFF0C;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x8005;&#x626E;&#x6F14;IV&#x4E0E;DV&#x4E2D;&#x7EE7;&#x7684;&#x89D2;&#x8272;&#xFF0C;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x8005;&#x5219;&#x8BA9;$X \to Y$&#x6709;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x7684;&#x4EA7;&#x751F;&#x53D8;&#x5316;&#xFF0C;&#x6362;&#x8A00;&#x4E4B;&#xFF0C;&#x89E3;&#x91CA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4E0E;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4F1A;&#x5BF9;&#x7ED3;&#x679C;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4EA7;&#x751F;&#x4EA4;&#x4E92;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#xFF08;interaction effect&#xFF09;&#xFF0C;&#x4F7F;&#x5F97;&#x5728;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x4E0D;&#x540C;&#x6C34;&#x5E73;&#x4E0B;&#xFF0C;$X \to Y$&#x7684;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#x4EA7;&#x751F;&#x7CFB;&#x7EDF;&#x6027;&#x53D8;&#x5316;&#x3002;</p>
<h3 id="&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;">&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;</h3>
<h4 id="&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#x610F;&#x4E49;">&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#x610F;&#x4E49;</h4>
<p>&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4E3A;&#x73B0;&#x6709;&#x7684;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#x5212;&#x51FA;&#x9650;&#x5236;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x548C;&#x4F7F;&#x7528;&#x8303;&#x56F4;&#x3002;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x65F6;&#xFF0C;&#x6211;&#x4EEC;&#x6B63;&#x662F;&#x901A;&#x8FC7;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x4E00;&#x7EC4;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x5728;&#x4E0D;&#x540C;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x4E0B;&#x7684;&#x53D8;&#x5316;&#x53CA;&#x5176;&#x80CC;&#x540E;&#x7684;&#x539F;&#x56E0;&#xFF0C;&#x6765;&#x4E30;&#x5BCC;&#x6211;&#x4EEC;&#x539F;&#x6709;&#x7684;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#x3002;&#x6240;&#x4EE5;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x80FD;&#x591F;&#x5E2E;&#x52A9;&#x6211;&#x4EEC;&#x53D1;&#x5C55;&#x5DF2;&#x6709;&#x7684;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#xFF0C;&#x4F7F;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#x5BF9;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x95F4;&#x7684;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x7684;&#x89E3;&#x91CA;&#x66F4;&#x4E3A;&#x7CBE;&#x7EC6;&#x3002;</p>
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<h4 id="&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x539F;&#x7406;">&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x539F;&#x7406;</h4>
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<p>&#x4E00;&#x822C;&#x5EFA;&#x8BAE;&#xFF0C;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x6700;&#x597D;&#x662F;&#x9009;&#x53D6;&#x660E;&#x786E;&#x6613;&#x61C2;&#x7684;&#x4E8C;&#x5206;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#xFF0C;&#x5982;&#x679C;&#x662F;&#x8FDE;&#x7EED;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#xFF0C;&#x5219;&#x9700;&#x4F9D;&#x7167;&#x6B63;&#x5F0F;&#x7684;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x7A0B;&#x5E8F;&#x6765;&#x5904;&#x7406;&#x3002;</p>
<h4 id="&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x4E0E;&#x4EA4;&#x4E92;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;">&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x4E0E;&#x4EA4;&#x4E92;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;</h4>
<p>&#x4EA4;&#x4E92;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x662F;&#x6307;&#x4E24;&#x7C7B;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>X</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">X_1</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.83333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit" style="margin-right:0.07847em;">X</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.30110799999999993em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:-0.07847em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x548C;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>X</mi><mn>2</mn></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">X_2</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.83333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit" style="margin-right:0.07847em;">X</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.30110799999999993em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:-0.07847em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">2</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x5171;&#x540C;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x65F6;&#x5BF9;Y&#x7684;&#x5F71;&#x54CD;&#x4E0D;&#x7B49;&#x4E8E;&#x4E24;&#x8005;&#x5206;&#x522B;&#x5F71;&#x54CD;Y&#x7684;&#x7B80;&#x5355;&#x6570;&#x5B66;&#x548C;&#x3002;&#x4E24;&#x4E2A;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x53EF;&#x4EE5;&#x662F;&#x5BF9;&#x79F0;&#x4E5F;&#x53EF;&#x4EE5;&#x662F;&#x4E0D;&#x5BF9;&#x79F0;&#x7684;&#x3002;</p>
<p>&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x662F;&#x6307;&#x4E00;&#x4E2A;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>X</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">X_1</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.83333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit" style="margin-right:0.07847em;">X</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.30110799999999993em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:-0.07847em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x5F71;&#x54CD;&#x4E86;&#x53E6;&#x5916;&#x4E00;&#x4E2A;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>X</mi><mn>2</mn></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">X_2</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.83333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit" style="margin-right:0.07847em;">X</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.30110799999999993em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:-0.07847em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">2</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x5BF9;Y&#x7684;&#x5F71;&#x54CD;&#x3002;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x548C;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x662F;&#x4E0D;&#x80FD;&#x4E92;&#x6362;&#x7684;&#x3002;</p>
<h4 id="&#x68C0;&#x67E5;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x7684;&#x65B9;&#x6CD5;">&#x68C0;&#x67E5;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x7684;&#x65B9;&#x6CD5;</h4>
<p>&#x68C0;&#x67E5;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x7684;&#x6700;&#x666E;&#x904D;&#x7684;&#x65B9;&#x6CD5;&#x662F;&#x591A;&#x5143;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x5206;&#x6790;MMR&#x3002;</p>
<p>MMR&#x5177;&#x4F53;&#x6B65;&#x9AA4;&#xFF1A;</p>
<ol>
<li>&#x7528;&#x865A;&#x62DF;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4EE3;&#x8868;&#x7C7B;&#x522B;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#xFF08;&#x6240;&#x9700;&#x7684;&#x865A;&#x62DF;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x6570;&#x76EE;&#x7B49;&#x4E8E;&#x7C7B;&#x522B;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x6C34;&#x5E73;&#x4E2A;&#x6570;&#x51CF;1&#xFF09;&#x3002;</li>
<li>&#x5BF9;&#x8FDE;&#x7EED;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x8FDB;&#x884C;&#x4E2D;&#x5FC3;&#x5316;&#x6216;&#x6807;&#x51C6;&#x5316;&#x3002;&#x5176;&#x76EE;&#x7684;&#x662F;&#x51CF;&#x5C11;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x65B9;&#x7A0B;&#x4E2D;&#x7684;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x95F4;&#x591A;&#x91CD;&#x5171;&#x7EBF;&#x6027;&#x3002;&#x6240;&#x8C13;&#x4E2D;&#x5FC3;&#x5316;&#xFF0C;&#x5C31;&#x662F;&#x7528;&#x8FD9;&#x4E2A;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4E2D;&#x6D4B;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x6BCF;&#x4E2A;&#x6570;&#x636E;&#x70B9;&#x51CF;&#x53BB;&#x5747;&#x503C;&#xFF0C;&#x4F7F;&#x5F97;&#x65B0;&#x5F97;&#x5230;&#x7684;&#x6570;&#x636E;&#x6837;&#x672C;&#x5747;&#x503C;&#x4E3A;0&#x3002;</li>
<li>&#x6784;&#x9020;&#x4E58;&#x79EF;&#x9879;&#x3002;</li>
<li>&#x6784;&#x9020;&#x65B9;&#x7A0B;&#x3002;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x3001;&#x56E0;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x548C;&#x4E58;&#x79EF;&#x9879;&#x653E;&#x5230;&#x591A;&#x5143;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x65B9;&#x7A0B;&#x4E2D;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x4EA4;&#x4E92;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x3002;&#x4E58;&#x79EF;&#x9879;&#x7684;&#x7CFB;&#x6570;&#x5982;&#x679C;&#x663E;&#x8457;&#xFF0C;&#x5C31;&#x8BF4;&#x660E;&#x8C03;&#x8282;&#x4F5C;&#x7528;&#x5B58;&#x5728;&#x3002;</li>
</ol>
<h3 id="&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#x610F;&#x4E49;">&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#x610F;&#x4E49;</h3>
<p>&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;(mediate)&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x6574;&#x5408;&#x5DF2;&#x6709;&#x7684;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x6216;&#x7406;&#x8BBA;&#xFF0C;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x53EF;&#x4EE5;&#x89E3;&#x91CA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x4E4B;&#x95F4;&#x4E3A;&#x4EC0;&#x4E48;&#x4F1A;&#x5B58;&#x5728;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#xFF0C;&#x4EE5;&#x53CA;&#x8FD9;&#x4E2A;&#x5173;&#x7CFB;&#x5982;&#x4F55;&#x53D1;&#x751F;&#x7684;&#x3002;Baron&#x4E0E;Kenny&#xFF08;1986&#xFF09;&#x4ECE;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x65B9;&#x6CD5;&#x5B66;&#x7684;&#x89D2;&#x5EA6;&#xFF0C;&#x63D0;&#x51FA;&#x4E86;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#x7684;&#x5B8C;&#x6574;&#x6982;&#x5FF5;&#x4F53;&#x7CFB;&#x4E0E;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x7A0B;&#x5E8F;&#xFF0C;&#x666E;&#x904D;&#x4E3A;&#x793E;&#x4F1A;&#x79D1;&#x5B66;&#x9886;&#x57DF;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x8005;&#x6240;&#x63A5;&#x53D7;&#x3002;</p>
<p>Baron&#x548C;Kenny&#x7684;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x662F;&#x5229;&#x7528;&#x4E09;&#x6761;&#x56DE;&#x5F52;&#x65B9;&#x7A0B;&#x5F0F;&#x6765;&#x68C0;&#x9A8C;&#x56DB;&#x4E2A;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x662F;&#x5426;&#x6210;&#x7ACB;&#xFF1A;</p>
<p><img src="http://img.cdn.zenmexuexi.com/1558858915.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/!100p" alt="&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#x56FE;&#x793A;"></p>
<ol>
<li>&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#x7684;&#x7B2C;&#x4E00;&#x4E2A;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x4E3A;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>b</mi><mi>c</mi></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">b_c</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.84444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit">b</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.151392em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathit mtight">c</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x7684;&#x4F30;&#x8BA1;&#x503C;&#x5FC5;&#x987B;&#x5177;&#x6709;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x663E;&#x8457;&#x6027;&#x3002;&#x5373;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;X&#x4E0E;Y&#x4E4B;&#x95F4;&#x5B58;&#x5728;&#x76F8;&#x5173;&#x6027;&#x3002;</li>
<li>&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#x7684;&#x7B2C;&#x4E8C;&#x4E2A;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x4E3A;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>b</mi><mi>a</mi></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">b_a</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.84444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit">b</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.151392em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathit mtight">a</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x7684;&#x4F30;&#x8BA1;&#x503C;&#x5FC5;&#x987B;&#x5C31;&#x6709;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x663E;&#x8457;&#x5EA6;&#x3002;</li>
<li>&#x7B2C;&#x4E09;&#x4E2A;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x662F;&#x5728;&#x540C;&#x65F6;&#x8003;&#x8651;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;X&#x4E0E;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;Z&#x5BF9;&#x4E8E;&#x56E0;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;&#x7684;&#x5F71;&#x54CD;&#x65F6;&#xFF0C;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;Z&#x5FC5;&#x987B;&#x5177;&#x6709;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x663E;&#x8457;&#x5EA6;&#x3002;</li>
<li>&#x5F53;&#x63A7;&#x5236;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;Z&#x540E;&#xFF0C;&#x539F;&#x6765;&#x7684;&#x81EA;&#x53D8;&#x91CF;X&#x5176;&#x51C0;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#x6D88;&#x5931;&#xFF0C;&#x4EA6;&#x5373;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>b</mi><mi>c</mi></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">b_c</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.84444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit">b</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.151392em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathit mtight">c</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x7684;&#x4F30;&#x8BA1;&#x503C;&#x6CA1;&#x6709;&#x8FBE;&#x5230;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x663E;&#x8457;&#x6C34;&#x5E73;&#x3002;</li>
</ol>
<p>&#x5982;&#x679C;&#x4E0A;&#x8FF0;&#x56DB;&#x9879;&#x6761;&#x4EF6;&#x5B8C;&#x5168;&#x7B26;&#x5408;&#xFF0C;&#x4EA6;&#x5373;Z&#x5B8C;&#x5168;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;X-&gt;Y&#x7684;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#xFF0C;&#x6210;&#x4E3A;&#x5B8C;&#x5168;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x6548;&#x5E94;&#x3002;&#x5982;&#x679C;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msubsup><mi>b</mi><mi>c</mi><mo mathvariant="normal">&#x2032;</mo></msubsup></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">b&apos;_c</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.998892em;vertical-align:-0.247em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit">b</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.751892em;"><span style="top:-2.4530000000000003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathit mtight">c</span></span></span><span style="top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">&#x2032;</span></span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.247em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x867D;&#x6709;&#x53D8;&#x5316;&#xFF0C;&#x4F46;&#x4ECD;&#x5177;&#x6709;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x663E;&#x8457;&#x6027;&#xFF0C;&#x82E5;&#x5176;&#x7EDD;&#x5BF9;&#x503C;&#x5C0F;&#x4E8E;<span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml"><math><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>b</mi><mi>c</mi></msub></mrow><annotation encoding="application/x-tex">b_c</annotation></semantics></math></span><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.84444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathit">b</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.151392em;"><span style="top:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathit mtight">c</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">&#x200B;</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>&#x7684;&#x4F30;&#x8BA1;&#x503C;&#xFF0C;&#x5219;&#x6210;&#x4E3A;Z&#x90E8;&#x5206;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;X&#x5BF9;Y&#x7684;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#xFF0C;&#x4EA6;&#x5373;&#x90E8;&#x5206;&#x4E2D;&#x4ECB;&#x6548;&#x679C;&#x3002;</p>
<ol>
<li>Applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences[M]. COHEN J, COHEN J. &#x7B2C;3rd ed&#x7248;. Mahwah, N.J: L. Erlbaum Associates, 2003.</li>
<li>&#x90B1;&#x7693;&#x653F;. &#x91CF;&#x5316;&#x7814;&#x7A76;&#x4E0E;&#x7EDF;&#x8BA1;&#x5206;&#x6790;[M]. &#x91CD;&#x5E86;: &#x91CD;&#x5E86;&#x5927;&#x5B66;&#x51FA;&#x7248;&#x793E;, 2013.</li>
</ol>
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